The formula to calculate the Rn number is:
\[ Rn = \frac{N \cdot p \cdot (1 + p)^t}{(1 + p)^t - 1} \]
Where:
Let's say the total population (N) is 1000, the probability of transmission per contact (p) is 0.05, and the duration of infectiousness (t) is 10 days. The Rn number would be calculated as follows:
\[ Rn = \frac{1000 \cdot 0.05 \cdot (1 + 0.05)^{10}}{(1 + 0.05)^{10} - 1} \approx 129.5 \]
So, the Rn number is approximately 129.5.
An Rn number, or Reproduction number, is a key parameter in epidemiology that represents the average number of people that one infected person can spread a disease to. It is used to measure the transmission potential of a disease. If the Rn is greater than 1, the number of cases increases exponentially, indicating an outbreak or epidemic. If it’s less than 1, the disease will eventually die out.
